Geopolitical events, macroeconomic data and quarterly earnings of corporates would guide the stock market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Stock markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Ram Navami. "This week promises to be crucial for the market as fresh worries about a potential conflict between Iran and Israel emerge.
Banks will be able to give loans to Indian companies for acquiring the entire equity stake or a controlling part of it in domestic or foreign firms as strategic investment that creates long-term value rather than for short-term financial restructuring if the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) draft circular, issued on Friday, comes to fruition.
The stock of India's largest listed pure play retail major Trent was down 14.76 per cent at close on Monday after a fall in revenue growth for the March quarter of 2024-25 (Q4FY25). The sales growth trajectory has been in a declining trend over the last few quarters, which, coupled with falling operational metrics, higher competitive intensity, and expensive valuations, has seen the stock crack about 44 per cent since its 52-week highs in October last year.
Stock markets would take cues from the upcoming macroeconomic data announcements and global trends besides keeping a watch on the trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. The last batch of the ongoing earnings calendar would trigger stock-specific action, traders said. "This week, we have to deal with macroeconomic data on both the domestic and global front.
Amid the political push and pull, the Centre's decision to allow sugar exports and remove the 50 per cent duty on molasses exports has rekindled hope in the industry that more relief may follow.
Govt must introduce automated investment scheme for poor.
Global fund managers witnessed one of their largest-ever declines in assets under custody (AUC) during the ongoing correction in the Indian markets, as stocks came under pressure from foreign outflows and the weakening rupee.
Release of key macroeconomic numbers, monthly derivatives expiry, and global cues are likely to drive stock market movement this week, according to analysts. Markets will also be reacting to remarks made by the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, they said. "This week, we expect the market to witness a gradual up-move with stock-specific action.
'Returning Indians can leverage their international skills and the strong funding environment for start-ups here.'
Valuations at current levels have historically corresponded single-digit returns.
Among Sensex firms, Bharat Electronics rose the most by 4.26 per cent. HCL Tech gained 2.57 per cent, Bajaj Finance by 2.19 per cent, TCS by 1.99 per cent, Tech Mahindra by 1.88 per cent and Infosys by 1.85 per cent. Gains in Axis Bank and State Bank of India also supported the rally. However, Mahindra & Mahindra emerged as the biggest loser, falling by 2.47 per cent. Maruti dropped 1.53 per cent and Tata Motors by nearly 1 per cent due to profit-taking. UltraTech, Eternal and Power Grid were also among the laggards.
: Build lasting wealth via disciplined, long-term mutual fund investing in India's compounding marathon, Shanaihi, Shanaihi, says Ramalingam Kalirajan
The domestic stock market this week would monitor the geopolitical developments after India and Pakistan reached an understanding to stop military actions, analysts said. Moreover, macroeconomic data announcements, Q4 earnings, trading activity of foreign investors and global market trends are also likely to influence sentiments, traders said.
The Israel-Iran conflict has entered a 'decisive phase' after the United States bombed three major Iranian nuclear sites Sunday morning, feel strategic affairs experts with some of them arguing it was Washington, DC's 'responsibility' to not get involved in the military standoff.
Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty ended over 1 per cent higher on Friday, helped by heavy buying in Infosys and banking stocks amid a rally in global stock markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 684.64 points or 1.20 per cent to settle at 57,919.97. During the day, it rallied 1,199.79 points or 2.09 per cent to 58,435.12.
From the 30-share Sensex blue-chip pack, Tata Steel, Zomato, Larsen & Toubro, Tata Motors, Adani Ports, Tata Consultancy Services, HDFC Bank and NTPC were the major laggards. Nestle, Hindustan Unilever, Mahindra & Mahindra, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Asian Paints and Bharti Airtel were among the gainers.
Pradip Shah, managing director, IndOcean, feels that although gold has done reasonably well, it doesn't really create too much value in the long run.
Foreign portfolio investors sold stocks worth Rs 1.42 trillion in 2025, with their sales hitting Rs 12,257 crore in the first four trading days of September.
Domestic mutual funds (MFs) have kept their faith in the Indian stock market despite multiple headwinds all through 2022-23 (FY23), with their net flows into equities crossing the Rs 1.5-trillion mark for the second consecutive financial year. MFs pumped a net Rs 1.53 trillion into equities till March 1, 2023, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) data shows, as compared to Rs 1.72 trillion in FY22. Since FY15, MFs have been net buyers of equities, except in FY21, when they sold a net Rs 1.21 trillion.
SEBI's blockbuster reforms are rewriting the rules of mutual fund investing -- faster growth, sharper transparency, and smarter safeguards that put investors first, explains Ramalingam Kalirajan.
'...are young Indians with aspiration to go to the US.' 'The dream has to be more about working in India...'
Most pharma shares dropped, dragging the BSE Healthcare index down by 2.14 per cent after Trump's move to impose 100 per cent import tariffs on pharmaceutical drugs from October 1. Wockhardt shares tanked 9.4 per cent.
'In the short term you keep your return expectations very, very low; in the medium term be prepared to invest and in the long term growth will come and your returns from stocks will be high.'
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is the biggest event that would drive sentiments in the domestic stock market this week, besides a host of macroeconomic data from the global front and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. The Indian equity market had an exceptional last week, with both the Nifty and Sensex hitting their all-time high levels on Thursday.
Shares of Oil marketing companies (OMCs) extended their gains for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday after crude oil prices plunged to six-month lows in the international markets, which boosted investor sentiments. Traders said the OMC stocks gained with crude oil prices hovering below $70 per barrel after OPEC-plus decision to increase output from April, a move which is expected to favour Indian refiners with added marketing margins on retail fuel.
The heightened global uncertainty due to the US "reciprocal tariffs" on India may cause near-term corrections and market turbulence, but the long-term outlook remains constructive, market experts said on Thursday. The US has announced 27 per cent reciprocal tariffs on India, citing high import duties imposed by New Delhi on American goods.
The index gained 572 points, or 2.4 per cent, this week while the Nifty added 164 points, or 2.3 per cent
Domestic 3rd quarter news weigh on sentiment. Analysts, however, saw some silver lining with European markets trading higher.
Analysts expect Nifty to rise up by to 6 per cent in six months, with intermittent corrections likely due to global factors.
While selling started in April, it has intensified this month, with FPIs pulling out $1.1 billion and $2.5 billion from equities and debt market, respectively
'If you see another 1000-point correction, people may start panicking.'
From the 30-share Sensex pack, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, NTPC, HCL Technologies, Axis Bank, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finserv, Sun Pharma, IndusInd Bank and Reliance Industries were the major laggards. Tata Steel, Hindustan Unilever, Mahindra & Mahindra, Nestle and State Bank of India were among the gainers.
The Indian stock market has been termed as a potential 'baby bull' as the Sensex may continue to advance over next 15 years and is likely to breach its all-time high level of 21,000 during the period, a report says.
Market reaction to the Union Budget was overall neutral. The income tax "gift" wasn't enough to move the needle. There was some apparent rationalisation of Customs duty structure as well as cuts on import duties of some key components for the telecom and IT industry and duty cuts on vehicle imports. Other proposals related to development of agriculture and rural economy and renewables seem to be generally positive.
Jio Platforms Limited is likely to have a valuation of $148 billion by the time it goes public on the back of strong free cash flow and potential deleveraging, ICICI Securities said.
Marico reported consolidated revenue growth of 20 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) during the January-March quarter (Q4) of FY25. Domestic revenue surged 23 per cent Y-o-Y, while volume growth was 7 per cent. International growth stood at 11 per cent (16 per cent in constant currency growth).
Information technology (IT) stocks ended at their lowest in nearly nine months after a fresh bout of selling, triggered by concerns over a recession in the US, the key market for domestic software exporters. A report by Morgan Stanley citing risks to growth also weighed on sentiment.
After overtaking foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) in market ownership, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have further solidified their dominance. DII ownership reached a new all-time high of 17.82 per cent as of June 2025, up from 17.62 per cent at the end of March 2025, according to an analysis by Prime Database.
Conventional wisdom is that when the US sneezes, emerging markets like India catch a cold. And yet the Indian stock market went up last year, points out Debashish Basu.
While Geojit Financial Services and Kotak Securities are already managing large NRI portfolios in West Asian countries, Sharekhan, yet another local brokerage outfit, recently launched a broking platform called India First in Bangkok for NRI clients.
